Express Checkout #111

Hello hello!

Welcome to February. I don’t know about you, but that was the longest January I’ve ever experienced. We could either see this as: 1) all of 2025’s events were somehow front-loaded and the rest can only go up or 2) January was setting the tone for the rest of the year. I’m going for option 1 (for my sanity), but hit reply with your predictions. 🔮 

News From the Week

So, it begins. The Trump administration has officially imposed new tariffs on imports from Canada and China (kicking off tomorrow), setting off what could be the biggest trade shakeup for CPG brands since the pandemic supply chain crisis. Let’s break it down →

The Global Trade War Starts…Now…Well 30 Days From Now

Here's what we're looking at: a 25% tariff on most Canadian imports (with a 10% carve-out for Canadian energy resources) and an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. We’d anticipated 25% tariffs on Mexico too—but as of today, these will be paused for a month.

In response? Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products—but here's the twist: they've also paused them for 30 days after last-minute talks between Trudeau and Trump. 🤷🏻

We're seeing aggressive retaliation plan that could seriously impact distribution and market access. For example, Nova Scotia is already blocking US products from provincial procurement and removing US products from liquor store shelves—a warning sign of what might come from other provinces.

These tariffs will force significant operational decisions across the consumer goods industry:

• Supply chain restructuring: Sourcing ingredients or materials from these markets (especially those unique to specific regions)? You're looking at an immediate 25% cost increase. Time to audit those supplier relationships and possibly diversify sourcing.

• Margin management: Brands will face tough decisions about absorbing costs vs. passing them to customers—an especially tough challenge for those operating on thin margins.

• Distribution strategy: Brands with significant cross-border business need to reassess their international market strategy and possibly adjust expansion plans.

The bottom line: This isn't just a trade dispute—it's a fundamental shift that requires immediate strategic planning. Anyone else getting flashbacks to supply chain disruptions circa 2020? 😅

The 30-day pause buys time, but we’ll see what comes of all this. Stay tuned for more updates, and if your brand is affected, hit reply—I’d love to hear how you're adapting.

CPG & Consumer Goods

• It’s rough out there. Haven’s Kitchen, known for its cooking sauces and marinades, announced it’s ceasing operations due to difficulties in achieving profitability—despite recent growth.

  • Founder Alison Cayne (who has been an incredible resource to the CPG community!) cited challenges in securing additional funding and emphasized the competitive landscape for independent brands.

  • The company had raised approximately $7.73 million in funding over the years, but struggled to maintain cash flow during a tough market environment…a market that is about to get even tougher.

  • We highly recommend checking out her podcast, and her episode with Nate!

• Taking on the $1 billion beast. This week, Rotten Candy launched new product called Gummy Cruncheez—their take on Nerds’ Gummy Clusters. Rotten focuses on healthier ingredients (but not sugar-free, which I like) while maintaining a fun and nostalgic brand.

@nate.rosen

There's a new crunchy gummy in town! 👀 Meet @Rotten Gummy Worms Gummy Cruncheez - the lower sugar alternative that's about to shake up the... See more

• Drunk Elephant better watch out. Several new teen and children's skincare companies recently launched, catering to the growing demand for age-appropriate skincare products. Brands like YAWN WORLD, Modern Family star Julie Bowen’s JB Skrub, Evereden, and even Bubble Skincare’s success speaks to the growth of the category.

  • Erly is a new skincare brand targeting Gen Z, launched by dermatologist Hallie McDonald and entrepreneur Jamie Chandlee. The brand offers vegan, fragrance-free products designed for sensitive skin.

  • And speaking of Bubble Skincare, they’re expanding into Target with 17 products, including a Target-exclusive hydration kit.

• The bev → powder pipeline. Celsius is launching a line of zero-sugar, caffeine-free, hydration powder sticks.

  • Jenna’s thoughts: At this point, Celsius is well-known as an energy bev—I wouldn’t go near something with a Celsius logo post-3 PM. I’ll be curious to see how these are received as a caffeine-free extension of Celsius’s lineup…and if Celsius can manage to make a name in the highly-competitive hydration powder game.

• More plant-based protein hits Target. With its wellness push in tow, Target is now introducing Koia’s top three plant-based protein shakes nationwide.

eCommerce

• Wait so Amazon isn’t profitable to itself and others? UPS plans to reduce its Amazon delivery volume by over 50% by the second half of 2026.

  • Despite Amazon being its largest customer, UPS stated that it is not the most profitable due to dilutive margins.

  • UPS hopes to capture volume from more profitable segments like healthcare product shippers and small- and medium-sized businesses.

Retail

• An urban garden takes NYC. Bloomingdale’s partnered with Flamingo Estate to create a pop-up market at its New York City flagship, featuring a curated selection of the brand's garden-focused products.

• Retail is going through it. Kohl’s will close 27 underperforming stores and an ecommerce fulfillment center by April 2025, representing about 2.3% of its locations, while also cutting 10% of its corporate workforce.

  • The retailer has struggled with declining sales, with Q3 2024 net sales down 8.8% year over year.

• Come on, just unlock the doors. CVS launched a new app, that basically does everything the old app does…but now allows you to unlock locked up merchandise.

Funding news

• Since everyone’s talking about eggs…Pete & Gerry’s Organics acquired Farmers Hen House to meet the growing demand for premium eggs. The acquisition adds over 90 family farms to Pete & Gerry's network.

• Moving beyond beer. Molson Coors announced a strategic partnership with Fever-Tree, acquiring an 8.5% stake in the UK-based drinks brand for $88.3 million.

  • This partnership will grant Molson Coors exclusive commercialization rights to Fever-Tree’s U.S. portfolio, including carbonated drinks and cocktail mixers, as they aim to enhance their Beyond Beer strategy.

• I recommend their Rye. Pinhook Bourbon secured $10.5 million in funding from private equity and family office investors to expand its sales and marketing efforts, while appointing John Scarborough as the new CEO.

  • John has an impressive background in the bev-alc industry as former CEO of Ranch Rider and CFO then president of Deep Eddy Vodka.

Weekly Pickups

Magic Spoon….granola? Look what can I say, it’s good granola! Great nutritional label, low sugar and high protein. What more can I ask for! And be on the lookout for our conversation with Gabi Lewis, co-founder of Magic Spoon! Checkout Chat coming soon 🤩 

See ya next week!

Nate + Jenna :)

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