Express Checkout #107

Hello hello!

Welcome to 2025 everyone! 🎉 

We’ll see what this year holds, but for myself and us here at Express Checkout I am excited for what we have in store. Weekly interviews, deep dives, a podcast, more TikToks (as long as it’s still here)…we got it all and more! You can check out our back catalogue of content at expresscheckout.co.

If you are a founder of a brand we’d love to interview you for our interview series Checkout Chats! We plan to release one each week!

🪩 We also got some events coming up for NRF this week. If you’re in town for the show hit me up! Reply to this email

• NRF Rooftop Soirée | 📆 Jan 10 - 7 PM | 📍 Upper East Side by Central Park

• NRF Invite-Only Happy Hour | 📆 Jan 12 - 7:30 PM | 📍 The Brazen Tavern

News From the Week

New year, new trends! 📈 🥤 

The big picture: As we step into 2025, the food and beverage industry stands at a fascinating crossroads. This year promises to be transitional, with several decisive forces like economic uncertainty reshaping our industry landscape.

• Health tech disruption: The rise of GLP-1 medications is already catalyzing significant change in product development and marketing strategies. Major players like Conagra are leading with new labeling and portion control, while brands across categories pivot toward GLP-1 friendly ingredients. friendly" positioning gaining serious momentum.

• M&A stays hot: Industry consolidation continues as large players snag niche brands to diversify. Interest rates might ease acquisition paths, unlocking more affordable growth capital. However, don't expect grocery prices to drop before 2026 – persistent supply chain challenges, rising labor costs, and climate impacts on agriculture (just look at cocoa prices!) keep pricing pressure high.

• Beverage evolution: Female-focused energy drinks (like Bloom & the newly unveiled Unwell) are gaining serious traction. Plus the protein revolution continues unabated, though interestingly, non-plant proteins are showing stronger momentum than their plant-based counterparts. People want whey!!

• Food innovation: Globally-inspired snacks will continue having their moment, while sustainable agriculture claims and celebrity run brands will falter. Private label’s unstoppable momentum will grow as value-seeking consumers remain cautious.

✅ Bottom line: As we navigate this transitional year, adaptability will be crucial. The successful players will be those who can balance innovation with economic pragmatism, all while meeting evolving consumer needs in an uncertain market.

CPG & Consumer Goods

• Protein protein and more protein 💪 

  • Koia, the plant-based RTD protein drink, just launched their highest protein shake to date. Their Elite Protein shakes offer 32g of plant protein with only 4g of sugar and 6g of fiber.

  • Daily Harvest has also launched a new line of high-protein smoothies with 20g of plant protein per serving. They’re also partnering with tennis star Sloane Stephens.

• Alice Cooper and adaptogens? WhistlePig has partnered with rock legend Alice Cooper to create a limited edition alcohol-free Old Fashioned cocktail called Sex, Drugs, Rock & Dry Old Fashioned, with 100% of profits supporting the bartending community. The cocktail features non-alcoholic 100% Rye 'Non-Whiskey' and unique ingredients like barrel-aged maple syrup and adaptogenic mushrooms (because why of course not).

• No one can take my Pinot. The U.S. Surgeon General's new advisory warns that apparently there is no safe level of alcohol consumption and that even small amounts may increase the risk of cancer.

  • While this warning is bound to spark conversation, I remain skeptical that it will have a lasting impact. Alcohol's cultural and social significance runs too deep, ingrained in everything from celebrations to rituals of relaxation. Some have compared this to the decades-long shift in public perception of cigarettes, but I doubt we'll see a similar transformation anytime soon.

• It’s been a tough 2 years for alt-meat. Sundial Foods, a California-based alt meat startup backed by Nestlé, has closed down and sold its intellectual property to a large European food company. Founded in 2019, the company faced challenges in fundraising (classic) and scaling its technology.

eCommerce

• Honey leaves a sticky feeling. YouTuber Devin Stone of the Legal Eagle channel is suing PayPal over its Honey extension for allegedly replacing creators' affiliate links with its own, depriving them of revenue. The class action lawsuit, filed in California, claims this practice violates California’s Unfair Competition Law. PayPal denies the allegations and states that Honey follows industry standards, though I don’t think so.

  • I highly recommend watching MegaLag’s YouTube deep dive on how Honey/PayPal have been seemingly and sneakily stealing affiliate revenue from creators.

• I really don’t want AI in EVERYTHING. Samsung is partnering with Instacart to enable its AI-powered Bespoke refrigerators to automatically order groceries based on what they detect is running low. The fridge uses internal cameras to track contents and can suggest items for replenishment, allowing users to approve purchases through a touchscreen.

• So is it accessible? The FTC has fined ecomm accessibility startup accessiBe $1 million for misleading advertising and compensating reviewers without disclosure. The FTC found that accessiBe overstated its product's capabilities and failed to provide adequate evidence for its claims.

• I have a feeling we might be getting more of these suits. A Washington judge has given the green light to Zulily's antitrust lawsuit against Amazon. Zulily alleges that Amazon has created an illegal monopoly through price-fixing agreements and anticompetitive practices that stifle competition. The trial is set to take place next year.

Retail

• I think I would have enjoyed college so much more. Sodexo plans to launch nearly 100 "Food Hive" convenience stores at college campuses across the U.S. by 2026.

  • Why now? Well the C-store category has been growing significantly over the past few years and expected to grow by $930 billion from 2024 to 2028. Even grocery stores, like Gelson’s are getting in on the action by launching their own C-store chain.

• I can’t believe it’s their first store! Savage X Fenty has opened its first store in New England at South Shore Plaza.

  • Since launching in 2018, they have been a DTC brand growing to over a $1 billion valuation and having raised a total of $310 million in funding from the likes of Neuberger Berman, L Catterton, Avenir, and Jay-Z's Marcy Venture Partners. The brand made its first foray into wholesale in April 2024 with Nordstrom, a move that came six years after its initial launch. While Savage X Fenty's DTC strategy has been successful and there are definitely things to learn from it, it's crucial to recognize that two forms of capital greatly impacted that success – Rihanna's cultural capital and the extensive venture capital.

Supply Chain

• It all feels sketchy still. SHEIN has joined the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Section 321 Data Pilot program to enhance transparency in its shipments and assist CBP in preventing illegal imports.

Funding news

• I guess craft beer is really done for. Mass. Bay Brewing Company and Finestkind Brewing LLC are merging to create the "Barrel One Collective," which will encompass 14 brands and operate eight taprooms in New England. Brands including Smuttynose and Harpoon.

  • This is in line with a broader trend of consolidation and strategic partnerships within the industry 🍻

    • Tilray Brands (a cannabis company) acquired four craft breweries from Molson Coors

    • Lord Hobo and Lone Pine Brewing announced plans to merge

    • E. & J. Gallo made a strategic investment in Montucky Cold Snacks

    • Asahi acquired Octopi Brewing

• Marquee Brands has acquired Laura Ashley, a renowned British home and lifestyle brand, to expand its global footprint and enhance its portfolio, valued at over $4 billion.

See ya next week!

Nate + Jenna :)

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